Markets Trade Most Of The Time Near All Time Highs

The Investment Perspective – October 2022

Peter Flannery Financial Adviser CFP
 

 

“Neither the investing method nor the fundamentals of the business are right or wrong because the mood of the market is favourable or unfavourable toward the “stock”. That is because when you really think about it, “stocks” (shares) are all about the financials and the trading price, the share price… the cash up value. What matters more is the economics of the business” 

Peter Flannery

Key Points:

  • Black Swans – what are they?  Why do they matter to investors?
  • Two important keys to reducing risk as an investor and improving return on investment (ROI).
  • Low trading prices can test investors’ patience – how are you doing?
Black Swan events affecting the market 1973 to 2020

 

Do you as an investor focus on the movement of the cash out value of your portfolio, the market noise, or … the quality of your investments and your investing goals?

The above dashboard is busy providing quite a bit of information.  The message is clear.  Markets are random.  Cycles are unpredictable but normal.  Regardless, those who invest in quality assets make money over time as their investments grow.  The trouble is of course, they don’t always grow in a straight line.

Further, if all I did was look at the trading price on a day-to-day or month-to-month basis, there are other things that I may not be looking at that are arguably much more important.

 

“The trading price of a stock tells you precisely nothing about the business.” 

Warren Buffett

 

Markets, stocks and businesses

Markets over 2022 have been unsettled with trading prices tracking downward.  It’s not over yet.  There is further downside volatility by my estimation and it may take time for it to work through the system.

That’s partly because unemployment remains low and works against taming inflation.  Inflation itself remains strong and therefore interest rates may need to continue to rise for the next 3 to 6 months or so.

Stocks come in many types and varieties.  Some better than others.  Stocks revolve around the financials and the short-term trading price.  The challenge with stocks is that the financials tend to be historical.

The trading price, even if we are a technical investor conducting trading around price movement, we are still arguably disadvantaged.  Traders have to get it right something like 56% of the time just to stay ahead.  Then they have to pay tax on their gains.  There are some very rich traders. There are very few.

Businesses are perhaps a bit boring but they offer certainty and stability around investing.  They don’t always play nice however we know generally what’s going on.

Importantly we can differentiate between market activity, stock price movement and misleading financials that relate to the stock and the quality of the underlying business.  That helps reduce risk and also support long-term performance.  Minimising chance or luck around investing is a good idea.

 

History of Market Environment 2022

An interesting point made in the above diagram is the fact that markets generally spend a lot of time trading around their all-time high.  I am getting into the weeds a bit in terms of markets (we at WISEplanning are all about the business), however, the point here for some is; if only markets travelled in an upward direction and a straight line and weren’t so random!

The volatility we’ve seen so far over 2022 is moderate not extreme.

The “noise” is moderate, not extreme.

More to the point, how do you feel?

If you’ve been around WISEplanning a few years then this may sound somewhat repetitive.

Perhaps if you’re a bit newer to the WISEplanning investment way, you might still have old world, traditional worries about markets and the global economy?  Then again you may not.

What is Warren Buffett up to?  What are our clients at WISEplanning doing currently?

We are focused on the quality of the business, taking advantage of better priced opportunity and are focused on our medium to long-term goals using the tools we have at our disposal (not worrying about markets and trading prices).

Sticking to the methodology is key.  So too is staying the course.

 

“All I ask is a chance to prove that money can’t make me happy.”

Spike Milligan

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