US 10 Year Government Bond Yield Hits 3%
Market and Economic Update – Week Ending 27th April 2018
Peter Flannery CFP AFA
“If you have one economist on your team,
it’s likely that you have one more than you’ll need.”
Warren Buffett
Interest rates are on the way up.
- 10 year US bond yields in the US hit the psychological 3% threshold this week for the first time in around four years. Fundamentally in my view it doesn’t mean much however the market is not always focused on the fundamentals.
- US bond yields at 3% did unsettle the markets this week as notions of higher interest rates triggering a sharemarket crash enters the minds of fickle investors. Basically, as interest rates rise asset prices can decline as some investors (who jump around from one thing to the next trying to outwit the market) consider returns from bonds and fixed interest a better bet than market linked investments whose asset prices rise and fall regularly.
- The short of it is that markets move on the basis of market sentiment however at this stage with the US 10 year bond rate at 3%, this rate is still significantly accommodative and below the norm. On a historical and a fundamental basis then, interest rates I would expect are still too low to worry most players in the market, however watch this space as interest rates are on the way up in the US.
Less borrowing required as the UK economy remains somewhat stable.
- Government borrowing in Britain has fallen to its lowest level in approximately 11 years, according to the latest official numbers. Borrowing fell by £3.5 billion to £42.6 billion in the 2017-2018 financial year. That was below the estimate of £45.2 billion generated by the independent office for budget responsibility last month. However, other numbers show that total public debt as a percentage of GDP increased to 86.3%, up from 85.3% in the year before. In cold hard cash it stands at £1.798 trillion.
- Whilst the total debt to GDP as outlined above is a significant sum, it is manageable and indeed the borrowing trend appears to be heading in the right direction – regardless of Brexit. Isn’t that interesting given the drama that surrounded the Brexit vote not that long ago. Increased productivity along with wages growth will help their cause moving forward, particularly as Brexit, whilst not the end of the world for Britain, is nonetheless an ongoing “slow burn” that won’t be helping.
- Meanwhile back in New Zealand, latest stats show immigration is slowing. Annual net migration came in at 68,000 in the year ending March 2018. This compares to the 68,900 new migrants recorded in the year ending February 2018 and is about 4,400 lower than the record level of 72,400 in the year ending July 2017. Slowing migration may slow down house price rises and slow the economy down too.
- Net migration appears to be falling slowly but still remains high by historical standards. Net migration for the March 2018 year was made up of 130,800 migrant arrivals and 62,900 migrant departures. There were 29,700 departures of non New Zealand citizen migrants in the March 2018 year which was up 2% from the February 2018 year and up 14% from the July 2017 year. It appears that net migration has been easing back since around mid-2017. With net migration sitting at just under 68,000, while still reasonably strong, it looks like the lowest level in about two years. This looks to be due to the fact that new arrivals into New Zealand may have flattened off.
- It appears that much of the increase in migration in recent years has been due to people arriving on temporary work and student visas. There is some evidence that we are now seeing a number of those people departing. Therefore it is possible that this trend may continue for a while yet.
- That said, New Zealand’s economy is progressing favourably and will still be attractive to many people looking to migrate from lands afar. However, it is possible that departures could trend up as the global economy strengthens. There is also the possibility that a tight Australian labour market could entice more Kiwis across the ditch too. On balance many commentators expect net inflows to remain historically high over the next few years with net annual inflows remaining around 50,000 plus over the next couple of years at least.