Trade Tariffs Can Go Hand In Hand With “Trade Wars”

Market and Economic Update –  Week Ending 30th March 2018

Peter Flannery CFP AFA

 

 

“If you have one economist on your team,
it’s likely that you have one more than you’ll need.” 

Warren Buffett

  • Trade Tariffs can go hand in hand with “trade wars”: The market is not keen, however, for you and I as investors, we look forward to uncertainty and therefore market volatility for lower prices and better buying opportunity.  The trade deficit is real (see below) and good on the popular media for using colourful language as they go about articulating the latest economic “drama”…

 

  Trade is skewed in China’s favour.

  • Donald Trump is very focused on what he says is balancing the trade deficit with China: In 2017, America posted a $375.2 billion deficit with China.  The largest deficit is computers and electronics.  President Donald Trump is seeking a one-third narrowing in the US trade deficit with China.  Therefore he is after a $100 billion reduction in the deficit.

 

  • Trade tariffs potentially bring market mayhem however as I mentioned recently, let’s not get too excited just yet.  Let’s watch this play out and hopefully we will get some much needed pricing volatility! 

 

  • Interest rates rise in the US: Jerome Powell, the new Fed chairman, lifted rates another 25 basis points (one-quarter of 1%) a few days ago.  This lifted the Fed funds rate from 1.50% to 1.75% which is still very accommodative with a number of rate hikes still to come.

 

  • Although time will tell, I believe this is where some significant pricing volatility will emerge in the future as interest rates begin to impact, not only on everyday Americans but also on numerous speculators across the market with varying positions that may need to be suddenly unwound as those rate hikes begin to bite.

 

  • Adrian Orr is the new Reserve Bank governor here in New Zealand and starts this job this week: He has had a successful career as a fund manager and has previously worked as head of economics at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as well as having been chief executive of the New Zealand Super Fund.

 

  • Although rising markets are a useful tail wind for anyone who manages money, I hold Adrian Orr in high regard for what he achieved as the chief executive of the New Zealand Super Fund.  He will be quite refreshing with his bold and at times blunt approach.  He takes over as the Reserve Bank governor this week. 

 

  • New Reserve Bank rules include unemployment as part of its new mandate along with other criteria such as the inflation rate to determine interest rates.  Although interest rate rises here in NZ appear to be on hold until 2019, if you are interested in interest rate direction, listen whenever he talks.

 

More next week, happy Easter…

 

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